Packaged food major Nestle India posted better than expected September quarter results led by strong volume growth across its key segments. While there were margin pressures due to elevated raw material costs, there could be some relief with easing prices in the near term.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Oil Minister Murli Deora has said that petrol and diesel prices would not be cut till crude oil prices fell to $67 a barrel, since the depreciation in the rupee against the US dollar had eroded gains from falling oil prices, which touched a 7-month low.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
Driven by GST reforms, robust festive demand, and softening raw material prices, the FMCG industry expects volume-based growth, supported by a mid-single digit revenue rise and improved operating margins in the December quarter.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) on Friday reported a 9.6 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit for the September quarter, driven by strong performance in its consumer-facing retail and telecom businesses and a recovery in its core oil-to-chemicals segment.
The companies' underrecoveries stood at a whopping Rs 1,39,869 crore last financial year. Of that, Rs 62,837 crore was accounted for by diesel alone.
Last week's fuel price cut will impact margins of oil companies such as Indian Oil Corporation less severely than it did when prices were last reduced in February 2007, giving the government room for another round of price cuts on automobile fuels before general elections early next year.
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
Essar Oil has cut petrol and diesel prices by an average of Rs 1.50 a litre to bring them at par with that of public sector firms.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
International crude oil prices have fallen over 33 per cent from their recent record highs and are projected to fall further towards $90 per barrel with the second hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico not causing as much loss of production as was initially estimated.
'Trump had done a deal with the current regime minus Maduro. The current regime is giving Trump entry into Venezuelan oil. They are obeying him and doing whatever he says.' 'They are happy because they have saved their heads by sacrificing only two, Maduro and his wife. Thousands of Venezuelan military leaders would have been jailed or killed in American action had Maduro stayed in power.'
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Monday, extending the losing run to the fourth day amid selling in IT shares and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 247.01 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at 82,253.46. During the day, it fell 490.09 points or 0.59 per cent to 82,010.38 but recovered some of the losses towards the close.
If crude oil prices stay at current levels, the Indian government would not be required to issue additional oil bonds to the four state-run oil marketing companies in the current financial year, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Monday. Oil retailers, however, are unlikely to cut prices of petroleum products in response to falling crude prices unless private retailers like Essar Oil and Reliance Industries Ltd restart operations and offer a lower price.
Wholesale prices fall 2.06% in February.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
Petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 per litre each as state-owned oil companies ended a nearly two-year-long hiatus in rate revision, just hours before the general election schedule was announced.
'The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has been so overwhelming that even a significant drop in global oil prices, which in normal times would have brought cheer, has posed new challenges for the government,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
The oil sector has been quite lucky for the Modi government. It has often provided an opportunity to the government to mend its finances, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The sharp fall in oil price is positive for oil marketers as subsidy concerns reduce further.
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
Air passengers might have a reason to smile this Diwali season as average airfares on many domestic routes have dropped 20-25 per cent compared to the year-ago period, according to an analysis. Increased capacity and the recent fall in oil prices are considered to be among the factors for the fall in air ticket prices. The analysis by travel portal ixigo showed that average airfare on the domestic routes have declined in the range of 20-25 per cent.
Crude oil prices have fallen to below $113 a barrel this week from all-time high of $147 per barrel witnessed last month. The basket of crude oil India buys averaged $109.88 per barrel, down from $119 a barrel price on June 4 when petrol, diesel and domestic cooking gas prices were raised.
The rupee, which fell 8.88 per cent since the beginning of September to an all-time low of less than 49 per dollar last week, has negated much of the impact of an over 45 per cent dip in crude oil prices since early July. As the value of the rupee falls, the companies have to pay more for crude oil in rupee terms, resulting in increased under-realisation on the fuels that they sell.
If you are actively trading, you can't possibly overlook headlines. Early announcements, policy changes, or even a disruption in a certain industry habitually grab your attention. These headlines, when strategically assessed, can generate profitable trading ideas.
On October 31, the government exempted jet fuel from 5 per cent import duty. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum cut jet fuel or aviation turbine fuel price from November 1 in Delhi by Rs 9,429.87 per kl to Rs 47,017.93 per kl, in line with fall in international oil prices.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Analysts forecast the fuel at $85 a barrel in 2015 and $90 a barrel in 2016; politics, demand-supply to pressure crude.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Thursday cut for the second straight day as international oil prices cooled fell on prospects of speedy recovery in consumption getting clouded by second wave of COVID-19 cases. Petrol price was cut by 21 paise per litre and diesel by 20 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol now costs Rs 90.78 per litre in Delhi and a litre of diesel comes for Rs 81.10.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday climbed to fresh highs in the country as rates were hiked by the most in recent times, even as fuel retailers said the government can cut taxes to ease consumer burden. Petrol and diesel price was hiked by 35 paise per litre each after a gap of a week, according to price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase took petrol prices to a fresh high of Rs 86.65 a litre in Delhi and to Rs 93.20 in Mumbai.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
A swift recovery in oil demand in India is not only helping the stability of the global market, it is giving huge fiscal headroom to the government in terms of additional excise duty.
